Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England

Published:2021-04-09 Issue:6538 Volume:372 Page:
ISSN:0036-8075
Container-title:Science
language:en
Short-container-title:Science

Author:

Davies Nicholas G.¹^ORCID,Abbott Sam¹^ORCID,Barnard Rosanna C.¹^ORCID,Jarvis Christopher I.¹^ORCID,Kucharski Adam J.¹,Munday James D.¹^ORCID,Pearson Carl A. B.¹^ORCID,Russell Timothy W.¹^ORCID,Tully Damien C.¹^ORCID,Washburne Alex D.²^ORCID,Wenseleers Tom³^ORCID,Gimma Amy¹,Waites William¹^ORCID,Wong Kerry L. M.¹^ORCID,van Zandvoort Kevin¹^ORCID,Silverman Justin D.⁴^ORCID,Diaz-Ordaz Karla⁵^ORCID,Keogh Ruth⁵^ORCID,Eggo Rosalind M.¹^ORCID,Funk Sebastian¹^ORCID,Jit Mark¹^ORCID,Atkins Katherine E.¹⁶^ORCID,Edmunds W. John¹^ORCID, ,

Affiliation:

1. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

2. Selva Analytics LLC, Bozeman, MT, USA.

3. Lab of Socioecology and Social Evolution, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium.

4. College of Information Science and Technology, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA, USA.

5. Centre for Statistical Methodology and Department of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.

6. Centre for Global Health, Usher Institute of Population Health Sciences and Informatics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK.

Abstract

UK variant transmission Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has the capacity to generate variants with major genomic changes. The UK variant B.1.1.7 (also known as VOC 202012/01) has many mutations that alter virus attachment and entry into human cells. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, Davies et al. characterized the spread of the B.1.1.7 variant in the United Kingdom. The authors found that the variant is 43 to 90% more transmissible than the predecessor lineage but saw no clear evidence for a change in disease severity, although enhanced transmission will lead to higher incidence and more hospital admissions. Large resurgences of the virus are likely to occur after the easing of control measures, and it may be necessary to greatly accelerate vaccine roll-out to control the epidemic. Science , this issue p. eabg3055

Funder

University of Kentucky

Universität Bern

Universitätsspital Basel

National Institute for Health Research

European Commission

CANDU Owners Group

Hôpitaux Universitaires de Genève

Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule Zürich

Université de Sfax

UKRI Research England

National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Immunisation

United Kingdom Medical Research Council

Publisher

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)

Subject

Multidisciplinary

Reference75 articles.

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