The COVID-19 pandemic waves: comparative and statistical analysis of their dynamics

Abstract

Abstract Objective. Record numbers of new COVID-19 cases and deaths registered in Japan and European countries in early 2022 aroused new questions about methods of overcoming the pandemic. The pandemic waves in Japan, Ukraine, USA, and Hong Kong in 2020, 2021, 2022 will be compared. Possible influence of testing and vaccination levels will be investigated. Methods. The smoothed daily numbers of new cases and deaths per capita, the ratio of these characteristics and the non-linear correlation with the tests per case ratio were used. Results. As in other countries, the deaths per case ratio in Japan decreases with the increase of the vaccination level despite increasing daily numbers cases and deaths. Conclusions Non-linear correlation revealed, that the daily number of new cases drastically decreases with the increase of the tests per case ratio. Implications for Public Health. Increasing the level of testing and adhering to quarantine restrictions for the entire population, including vaccinated people, can be recommended to reduce the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic.