Evaluation of the RegCM regional model driven by CFSv2 in intra-seasonal forecasts for the Alcântara Launch Center

Abstract

Meteorological forecasts with a predictability window greater than 15 days, characterize the intra-seasonal forecast, which requires initial state conditions of the atmosphere and slower variability related to the temperature of the sea surface. Driving regional models by global models, it is possible to generate intra-seasonal forecasts. For the following study, we used the “regional climate model” (RegCM) nested in the global climate model “Climate Prediction System” (CFSv2) to predict temperature and the wind magnitude at 10 meters. For South America, 10 projections were made for the months of April and September. The dexterity of the model was attested by comparing it with the data from the ERA5 reanalysis model. This study evaluates the effectiveness of the model in describing the main atmospheric characteristics in force in South America, for operational purposes of the Alcântara Launch Center (CLA) in Maranhão. The evaluated scenarios were promising, where the temperature and wind intensity data showed low anomaly values for almost the entire continent. Generally, the model can prescribe well the conditions of circulation near the surface, being of great importance for the planning of launches of space vehicles.