Research on forecasting method of aviation traffic based on social and economic indicators

Abstract

Abstract With the continuous deepening of the Reform and Open combining rapid growth of the national economy, China’s civil aviation industry has made considerable progress in expanding the scale of transportation. According to the basic ideas and action guidelines determined by China’s economic and social development strategic planning, the overall goal is to build a safe, efficient and green mass civil aviation transportation system by 2030. The rapid development of the civil aviation industry is bound to bring a rapid increase in the passenger throughput of civil aviation. The size of the airport is closely related to the passenger throughput. Therefore, the airport passenger traffic forecast results will become an important basis for determining the future scale of the airport. This paper proposes a comprehensive forecasting method combining trend extrapolation and econometrics with economic and social indicators, and elaborates the method with examples.