Affiliation:
1. Civil Aviation College, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, China
2. China Civil Aviation Engineering Consulting Co., Ltd., Beijing 100621, China
Abstract
This paper proposes a hybrid evaluation method to assess the prediction models for airport passenger throughput (APT). By analyzing two hundred three airports in China, five types of models are evaluated to study the applicability to different airports with various airport passenger throughput and developing conditions. The models were fitted using the historical data before 2014 and were verified by using the data from 2015–2019. The evaluating results show that the models employed for evaluating perform well in general except that there are insufficient historical data for modelling, or the APT of the airports changes abruptly owing to expansion, relocation or other kinds of external forces such as earthquakes. The more the APT of an airport is, the more suitable the models are for the airport. Particularly, there is no direct relation between the complexity and the predicting accuracy of the models. If the parameters of the models are properly set, time series models, causal models, market share methods and analogy-based methods can be utilized to predict the APT of 88% of studied airports effectively.
Funder
Civil Aviation Administration of China
Subject
Fluid Flow and Transfer Processes,Computer Science Applications,Process Chemistry and Technology,General Engineering,Instrumentation,General Materials Science
Reference35 articles.
1. Forecasting air traffic demand for major infrastructure changes;Solvoll;Res. Transp. Econ.,2020
2. Analysis of Using Time Series Method for Prediction of Number of Passengers at the Airport;Kurdel;J. KONBiN,2020
3. Cheng, L., and Xiao, M. (2017, January 27–29). A Review of Research on Airline Passenger Volume Forecasting. Proceedings of the 2017 4th International Conference on Machinery, Materials and Computer (MACMC 2017), Xi’an, China.
4. Research on forecasting method of aviation traffic based on social and economic indicators;Zhang;IOP Conf. Ser. Mater. Sci. Eng.,2020
5. Research on Passenger Throughput Forecast of Civil Aviation Airport Based on Multi-source Data;Peng;J. Phys. Conf. Ser.,2022
Cited by
2 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献