Constraining future surface air temperature change on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Abstract The rapid warming of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) in recent decades has led to severe consequences, including the melting of glaciers and snow cover, which further accelerates warming. Accurately projecting the magnitude of future warming is crucial for effective climate change adaptation. However, the projection of future temperature change is model dependent. In this study, we demonstrate a significant correlation between the historical inter-model warming trend and future temperature change, suggesting this relationship could be used to calibrate the best estimate of projections and reduce the uncertainty by observations. For a high emission scenario, the constraint helps to narrow down the uncertainty range of annual and summer temperature change on the western TP by up to 2 °C and 4 °C, respectively, in the end of this century. The most substantial calibrated increase of future change is in winter by up to 2 °C, followed by autumn with an increase by about 1 °C. Discrepancies of historical warming trend among different observation datasets expose the largest impact on the constrained best estimate compared with emergent relationship derived from different climate models and warming trend in different historical periods.