An empirical model to predict glacier area changes in China

Abstract

Abstract Prediction of glacier changes is crucial for our society to adapt to the ongoing climate change. First, using correlation analysis, we found that a climate index (annual temperature) is significantly correlated with glacier area changes in China. A linear empirical model was then constructed to predict glacier area changes using temperature projections from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). By using a subset of the glacier area change data as training data and the rest as verification data, we confirmed that the ability of the model to predict is reliable. The model requires only simple inputs and is easy to use. It gives a means of obtaining information on glacier area changes in the future for people in other disciplines as well as glaciologists who only need general information concerning glacier area changes in China.