The Method of Assessing Traffic Safety in Railway Transport

Abstract

Abstract To identify and predict risks in the work, a method for assessing traffic safety in railway transport is proposed. On the basis of statistics on the failure of freight cars during operation, the characteristic distribution laws for types of wear were determined. As a result, the dependences of the probability of failure-free operation of freight cars on the operating life were obtained and the centers of gravity of the areas that are used to characterize and assess the risk were determined. When designing a freight car, it is possible to establish risk values obtained on the basis of statistical data, which opens up the possibility of improving traffic safety in railway transport. In the developed method for assessing traffic safety in railway transport, the use of a graphical risk matrix is proposed. It is also proposed to combine the dependencies of the probability of failure-free operation of freight cars to calculate the total risk. This allows you to get a graphical risk matrix taking into account three types of wear of a freight car to assess traffic safety. The number of dependencies of the probability of failure-free operation of freight cars can be increased if failures are observed for other reasons.