From project risk to complexity analysis: a systematic classification

Abstract

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a systematic classification for frameworks, methods, and models of in-project quantitative risk analysis (IQRA) for the last 30 years. Design/methodology/approach An extensive literature review is conducted to identify pertinent IQRA works. Identified IQRA frameworks/methods/models are then classified on the basis of commonalities in key attributes and assumptions. Linkages between each category of IQRAs and dimensions of complexity are also observed. Findings Around 70 key publications on IQRAs are identified. Major attributes for each work are described. Five distinct categories of IQRAs emerge with unique linkages to complexity dimensions. An analytical framework in the form of a matrix is presented to illuminate evolution on modeling characteristics and to indicate a relationship between respective category and dimensions of project complexity. Research limitations/implications The research coverage is intended to be comprehensive but it is by no means exhaustive. This study highlights research opportunities in IQRAs and the possible extension toward in-project quantitative complexity analysis (IQCA). Practical implications The proposed matrix provides guidance to practitioners to select the appropriate category of IQRAs for a specific project complexity type in a contingency fashion. The study highlights lessons from development and utilization of IQRAs. Outstanding issues from IQRAs are discussed to avoid similar drawbacks for IQCAs. Originality/value This study provides an original framework/matrix to classify extant works in IQRAs. It also establishes an association between IQRAs and the emerging conceptual works of complexity.