The intertwined relationship of shadow banking and commercial banks’ deposit growth: evidence from India

Abstract

Purpose While traditionally it was believed that shadow banking undercuts business from traditional commercial banks, the time has now arrived to examine the various innovative practices used by various shadow banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs) to explore various collaboration and competition possibilities. The parallel existence of the traditional and shadow banking systems creates a market environment where both the entities are inter-dependent for growth and development with their edge of advantages and snags. This study aims to investigate the development and growth of deposits in NBFCs and scheduled commercial banks (SCBs) and, through the adoption of innovative practices, highlights possible growth opportunities for both ahead. Design/methodology/approach This study uses yearly bank deposit data from 1998 to 2019. This study incorporates univariate autoregressive integrated moving average modeling to predict the future deposit growth of SCBs and NBFCs in India. Findings This study concludes that both the entities, i.e. NBFCs and SCBs, will experience deposit growth; however, the proportionate growth of deposits in SCBs will be higher than NBFCs. Research limitations/implications This study concludes that the NBFCs will exhibit higher growth in the future. Thus, a strengthened regulatory framework will boost the growth of the NBFCs, providing a safe environment to the investor. Further, as this study primarily considers only deposit-taking NBFCs and commercial banks and a single variable – “deposit” to predict its future growth, it offers a scope for future research to consider and include other kinds of NBFCs like non-deposit taking NBFCs, housing finance companies, micro-finance Institutions and infrastructure finance companies. Originality/value A competently regulated financial system of an emerging economy confers tremendous growth opportunities to the financial institutions functioning in the system. Deposits are a significant parameter for the performance of the financial institution; thus, by keeping it as the underlying premise, this study forecasts the future growth in deposits for both the commercial banks and NBFCs. This forecasted growth in deposits for both entities, if analyzed and acted upon appropriately, can, apart from other opportunities for investment, be used to point at directional growth of the economy and the gross domestic product, considering that credit growth is a barometer for economic growth. The scope of this study is limited to NBFCs and SCBs of India and considers only a single variable, i.e. deposit for data analysis and growth forecasting.