Author:
Xie Naiming,Wang Ruizhi,Chen Nanlei
Abstract
Purpose
This paper aims to analyze general development trend of China’s population and to forecast China’s total population under the change of China’s family planning policy so as to measure shock disturbance effects on China’s population development.
Design/methodology/approach
China has been the most populous country for hundreds of years. And this state will be sustained in the forthcoming decade. Obviously, China is confronted with greater pressure on controlling total scale of population than any other country. Meanwhile, controlling population will be beneficial for not only China but also the whole world. This paper first analyzes general development trend of China’s population total amount, sex ratio and aging ratio. The mechanism for measurement of the impact effect of a policy shock disturbance is proposed. Linear regression model, exponential curve model and grey Verhulst model are adopted to test accuracy of simulation of China’s total population. Then considering the policy shock disturbance on population, discrete grey model, DGM (1, 1), and grey Verhulst model were adopted to measure how China’s one-child policy affected its total population between 1978 and 2015. And similarly, the grey Verhulst model and scenario analysis of economic developing level were further used to forecast the effect of adjustment from China’s one-child policy to two-child policy.
Findings
Results show that China has made an outstanding contribution toward controlling population; it was estimated that China prevented nearly 470 million births since the late 1970s to 2015. However, according to the forecast, with the adjustment of the one-child policy, the birth rate will be a little higher, China’s total population was estimated to reach 1,485.59 million in 2025. Although the scale of population will keep increasing, but it is tolerable for China and sex ratio and trend of aging will be relieved obviously.
Practical implications
The approach constructed in the paper can be used to measure the effect of population change under the policy shock disturbance. It can be used for other policy effect measurement problems under shock events’ disturbance.
Originality/value
The paper succeeded in studying the mechanism for the measurement of the post-impact effect of a policy and the effect of changes in China’s population following the revision of the one-child policy. The mechanism is useful for solving system forecasting problems and can contribute toward improving the grey decision-making models.
Subject
Computer Science (miscellaneous),Social Sciences (miscellaneous),Theoretical Computer Science,Control and Systems Engineering,Engineering (miscellaneous)
Reference63 articles.
1. Son preference, fertility decline, and the nonmissing girls of Turkey;Demography,2016
2. Bayesian population forecasting: extending the Lee-Carter Method;Demography,2015
3. Forecasting differences in life expectancy by education;Population Studies,2016
4. Stochastic population forecasting based on combinations of expert evaluations within the Bayesian paradigm;Demography,2014
5. The delayed fertility transition in north-east Italy;European Journal of Population,2015
Cited by
25 articles.
订阅此论文施引文献
订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献