Learning latent dynamics with a grey neural ODE prediction model and its application

Abstract

PurposeIn this study, a new neural differential grey model is proposed for the purpose of accurately excavating the evolution of real systems.Design/methodology/approachFor this, the proposed model introduces a new image equation that is solved by the Runge-Kutta fourth order method, which makes it possible to optimize the sequence prediction function. The novel model can then capture the characteristics of the input data and completely excavate the system's evolution law through a learning procedure.FindingsThe new model has a broader applicability range as a result of this technique, as opposed to grey models, which have fixed structures and are sometimes over specified by too strong assumptions. For experimental purposes, the neural differential grey model is implemented on two real samples, namely: production of crude and consumption of Cameroonian petroleum products. For validation of the new model, results are compared with those obtained by competing models. It appears that the precisions of the new neural differential grey model for prediction of petroleum products consumption and production of Cameroonian crude are respectively 16 and 25% higher than competing models, both for simulation and validation samples.Originality/valueThis article also takes an in-depth look at the mechanics of the new model, thereby shedding light on the intrinsic differences between the new model and grey competing models.