Forecasting Travel Sentiment under the Shock Effects of COVID-19 and Vaccination Using Grey Prediction Models

Abstract

The tourism industry has become a major contributor to the economic growth. However, because of the outbreak of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, the year 2020 became an extremely difficult year for the global tourism industry. Since the development of the tourism industry depends largely on changes in travel sentiment, it is important to analyze these changes in light of the pandemic. To determine the development trends of travel sentiment, a hybrid grey prediction model was used to predict travel sentiment globally and in the top 10 destination countries considering the shock effect of COVID-19 and vaccination. The results showed that the grey prediction models integrated with residual modification model contributed to improving the prediction accuracy. In addition, COVID-19 and vaccination were found to have opposite effects on travel sentiment. Based on the predictions, governments should strengthen pandemic prevention and control and administer vaccines to restore travel sentiment and promote tourism recovery.