Modeling the effect of word-of-mouth advertising on a mobile game installation based on the Bass diffusion model using system dynamics

Abstract

PurposeThe basic purpose of this study is to increase the installation rate of mobile games and their life cycle. Little research has been conducted into the competitive market of mobile games and word-of-mouth (WOM), advertisement and quality simultaneously. In this paper, the authors aim to assist developers with a better understanding of how to invest in the game industry.Design/methodology/approachThe primitive modeling has been made based on the Bass diffusion model and its extensions using features related to the game industry. Modeling and simulation have been performed using the system dynamics method.FindingsThe results show that if game developers only focus on advertising at the introduction of the game to the market, and neglect quality features, uninstall rate of adopters increases and the game life cycle decreases. And if developers only focus on the quality improvement of the game, and ignore advertisement, they couldn't create enough WOM and thus game installation wouldn't grow enough to create revenue. Furthermore, as long as the pleasure of the game is high for its adopters, developers shouldn't give up on investing in advertising to create even higher WOM. And also in communities with higher levels of variety-seeking among game players, quality is important at the start and advertisement is vital in the following steps of the game life cycle. And if the contact rate among people is high, developers could focus on quality more than the advertisement.Originality/valueEven though WOM in mobile game installation is crucial, fewer studies have been done in this area and they only address the problem using qualitative or statistical methods. The quantitative system dynamics approach based on the Bass diffusion model, used in this research, fixes the shortcomings of the previous studies. Moreover, due to serious competition in the mobile game industry, only those developers can remain in the market who can predict the future trend of the game market. Furthermore, game development is a creative process and its key factors include engaging the gamers and monetizing.