Are online communities on par with experts in the evaluation of new movies? Evidence from the Fandango community

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate two questions. First, are movie-based online community evaluations (CE) on par with film expert evaluations of new movies? Second, which group makes more reliable and accurate predictions of movie box office revenues: film reviewers or an online community? Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected from a movie-based online community Fandango for a 16-month period and included all movies released during this time (373 movies). The authors compared film reviewers’ evaluations with the online CE during the first eight weeks of the movie’s release. Findings – The study finds that community members evaluate movies differently than film reviewers. The results also reveal that CE have more predictive power than film reviewers’ evaluations, especially during the opening week of a movie. Research limitations/implications – The investigated online community is based in the USA, hence the findings are limited to this geographic context. Practical implications – The main implication is that film studios and movie-goers can rely more on CE than film reviewers’ evaluation for decision making. Online CE can help film studios in negotiating with distributors, theatre owners for the number of screens. Also, community reviews rather than film reviewers’ reviews are looked upon by future movie-goers for movie choice decisions. Originality/value – The study makes an original contribution to the motion picture performance research as well as to the growing research on online consumer communities by demonstrating the predictive potential of online communities with regards to evaluations of new movies.