House Republicans were rewarded for supporting Donald Trump’s ‘stop the steal’ efforts

Abstract

In early 2021, members of Congress cast a series of high-profile roll call votes forcing them to choose between condoning or opposing Donald Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election. Substantial majorities of House Republicans supported Trump, first by opposing the certification of electoral votes from Arizona and Pennsylvania on January 6th, then by opposing the president’s impeachment for inciting the attack on the US Capitol, and then by opposing a bill that would have created a national commission to investigate the events of January 6th. We examine whether the House Republicans who voted to support Trump in 2021 were rewarded or punished in the 2022 congressional midterm elections. We find no evidence that members who supported Trump did better or worse in contested general election races. However, Trump supporters were less likely to lose primary elections, more likely to run unopposed in the general election, more likely to run for higher office, and less likely to retire from politics. Overall, there seem to have been no significant political costs and some significant rewards in 2022 for House Republicans who supported Trump’s undemocratic behavior.