The Tory Fragment in Canada: Endangered Species?

Abstract

Decades after Gad Horowitz's seminal article first appeared in 1966 in the Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, fragment theory's capacity to make sense of phenomena for which it might otherwise be difficult to account, still appears relevant. Support for the Reform party/Canadian Alliance is most robust in provinces marked by immigration from the western United States. By contrast, provinces where United Empire Loyalists settled have proven most resistant to incursions by Reform. Using fragment theory to formulate a possible hypothesis to explain this puzzle has two incidental benefits. It probes the failure of new federal parties to emerge from Maritime Canada, and it allows speculation about the simultaneous demise of the Conservative and New Democratic parties.