Prediction of maize yield under future water availability scenarios using the AquaCrop model

Abstract

SUMMARYThe water driven crop growth model AquaCrop was evaluated for predicting the yield of kharif maize (i.e. maize sown in the monsoon season) under future water availability scenarios. Future climatic data were generated using the climate data generator ClimGen, which was parameterized using 37 years (1972–2008) of historical data relating to the study area. The climatic data generated were used first in the CROPWAT model to estimate the irrigation schedule, which was then used in the validated AquaCrop model to predict grain yield for future years. Rainfall estimates generated by ClimGen for 2012 (739 mm) and 2014 (625 mm) resulted in yields of 1600 and 5670 kg/ha, respectively, under rainfed situation during these 2 years with full fertilization levels. This variation may be attributed to the depths of rainfall events and their distribution during the entire growing season in general and sensitive growth stages in particular pertaining to the same sowing date (22 July) in both years. Nonetheless, the use of ClimGen, CROPWAT and AquaCrop models can be standardized as a model-linking protocol to estimate future maize yield and irrigation water requirements for sustainable production and as an adaptation measure to climate change.