Population genetic models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants: A review in light of SARS-CoV-2 evolution

Abstract

Theoretical population genetics has long studied the arrival and geographic spread of adaptive variants through the analysis of mathematical models of dispersal and natural selection. These models take on a renewed interest in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, especially given the consequences that novel adaptive variants have had on the course of the pandemic as they have spread through global populations. Here, we review theoretical models for the spatial spread of adaptive variants and identify areas to be improved in future work, toward a better understanding of variants of concern in Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolution and other contemporary applications. As we describe, characteristics of pandemics such as COVID-19—such as the impact of long-distance travel patterns and the overdispersion of lineages due to superspreading events—suggest new directions for improving upon existing population genetic models.