Catching a wave: on the suitability of traveling-wave solutions in epidemiological modeling

Abstract

AbstractOrdinary differential equation models such as the classical SIR model are widely used in epidemiology to study and predict infectious disease dynamics. However, these models typically assume that populations are homogeneously mixed, disregarding possible variations in disease prevalence due to spatial heterogeneity. To address this issue, reaction-diffusion models have been proposed as an alternative approach for modeling spatially continuous populations in which individuals move in a diffusive manner. In this study, we explore the conditions under which such spatial structure must be explicitly considered to accurately predict disease spread, and when the assumption of homogeneous mixing remains adequate. In particular, we derive a critical threshold for the diffusion coefficient below which disease transmission dynamics display spatial heterogeneity. We validate our analytical results with individual-based simulations of disease transmission across a two-dimensional continuous landscape. Using this framework, we further explore how key epidemiological parameters such as the establishment probability of a disease, its maximal incidence, and its final epidemic size are affected by incorporating spatial structure in SI, SIS, and SIR models. We discuss the implications of our findings for epidemiological modeling and identify design considerations and limitations for spatial simulation models of disease dynamics.