Assessment of climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin, Vietnam

Author:

Khoi D. N.123,Nguyen V. T.4,Sam T. T.2,Mai N. T. H.13,Vuong N. D.5,Cuong H. V.6

Affiliation:

1. Faculty of Environment, University of Science, 227 Nguyen Van Cu Street, Dist. 5, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam

2. Institute for Computational Science and Technology, Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam

3. Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Linh Trung Ward, Thu Duc Dist., Ho Chi Minh City 700000, Vietnam

4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 1 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744, Korea

5. Southern Institute of Water Resources Research, 658 Vo Van Kiet Street, Dist. 5, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

6. The Key Laboratory of River and Coastal Engineering, Vietnam Academy for Water Resources, Hanoi, Vietnam

Abstract

Abstract On a global scale, climate change is projected to have detrimental impacts on water availability. This situation will become more severe owing to accumulated impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities. This study aims to investigate climate change impact on water availability in the upper Dong Nai River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) models. Future rainfall scenarios were downscaled from five different general circulation models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG) tool. Under the climate change impact, annual river discharge in the study region is generally projected to have upward trends in the future, except for the near-future period of the 2030s under RCP4.5. In addition, dry-seasonal river discharge is expected to be increased in the future. Considering the baseline condition of water use, there was an annual water shortage of approximately 32.9 × 103 m3, which mostly occurred in the dry season from January to March. Climate change may reduce the water shortage in the study region ranging from 7.0 to 30.1% in the future. Under the combined impacts of climate change and increasing water demand, the water shortage will vary from −18.6 to 6.0% in the future. The results can provide valuable insights to implement appropriate future water resources planning and management in the study region.

Funder

department of science and technology of ho chi minh city, managed by institute for computational science and technology

Publisher

IWA Publishing

Subject

Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law,Atmospheric Science,Water Science and Technology,Global and Planetary Change

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