The climate change effects on agricultural drought in the Be River Basin

Abstract

Abstract Drought is one of the extreme weather events that has been occurring with increasing frequency and complexity as well as having negative effects on water resources and agricultural production. The focus of the present study is to investigate the climate change effects on agricultural drought in the Be River Basin. The SWAT model was applied to simulate the soil moisture content and Standardized Soil Water Index (SSWI) was utilized to estimate the characteristics of agricultural drought. In addition, the future climate conditions for the three periods (2022–2040, 2042–2060, and 2062–2080) were generated by the delta change method based on the outputs of five global climate models. The results show that agricultural drought is anticipated to increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration (up to 168.82%, depending on time and emission scenarios). Moreover, drought events and water shortage in the dry season tend to be more likely to happen soon in the Be River Basin. These results are consistent with the changing trends of related soil moisture. Besides, the results contribute reliable scientific evidence to help managers and policy makers having appropriate plans in the future.