Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Estimating number of cases and spread of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using critical care admissions, United Kingdom, February to March 2020

Published:2020-05-07 Issue:18 Volume:25 Page:
ISSN:1560-7917
Container-title:Eurosurveillance
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Jit Mark¹²,Jombart Thibaut³⁴²,Nightingale Emily S²,Endo Akira²,Abbott Sam²,Edmunds W John²,

Affiliation:

1. School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR, China

2. Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

3. MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, United Kingdom

4. United Kingdom Public Health Rapid Support Team, London, United Kingdom

Abstract

An exponential growth model was fitted to critical care admissions from two surveillance databases to determine likely coronavirus disease (COVID-19) case numbers, critical care admissions and epidemic growth in the United Kingdom before the national lockdown. We estimate, on 23 March, a median of 114,000 (95% credible interval (CrI): 78,000–173,000) new cases and 258 (95% CrI: 220–319) new critical care reports, with 527,000 (95% CrI: 362,000–797,000) cumulative cases since 16 February.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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