Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020

Published:2020-03-12 Issue:10 Volume:25 Page:
ISSN:1560-7917
Container-title:Eurosurveillance
language:en
Short-container-title:

Author:

Mizumoto Kenji¹²³^ORCID,Kagaya Katsushi⁴²,Zarebski Alexander⁵,Chowell Gerardo¹

Affiliation:

1. Department of Population Health Sciences, School of Public Health, Georgia State University, Atlanta, Georgia, United States

2. Hakubi Center for Advanced Research, Kyoto University, Yoshidahonmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan

3. Graduate School of Advanced Integrated Studies in Human Survivability, Kyoto University Yoshida-Nakaadachi-cho, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto, Japan

4. Seto Marine Biological Laboratory, Field Science, Education and Reseach Center, Kyoto University, Shirahama-cho, Nishimuro-gun, Wakayama, Japan

5. Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom

Abstract

On 5 February 2020, in Yokohama, Japan, a cruise ship hosting 3,711 people underwent a 2-week quarantine after a former passenger was found with COVID-19 post-disembarking. As at 20 February, 634 persons on board tested positive for the causative virus. We conducted statistical modelling to derive the delay-adjusted asymptomatic proportion of infections, along with the infections’ timeline. The estimated asymptomatic proportion was 17.9% (95% credible interval (CrI): 15.5–20.2%). Most infections occurred before the quarantine start.

Publisher

European Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (ECDC)

Subject

Virology,Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health,Epidemiology

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