An Evaluation of the Extreme Rainfall Event of 2010 over the Kabul River Basin using the WRF Model

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events are among the most severe weather hazards. Knowledge about the spatial patterns underlying such events in the Upper Indus Basin is limited because estimating precipitation is very challenging due to the data scarcity and the complex orography. Numerical weather prediction models can be applied at a fine resolution to overcome this issue. The Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.8.1 was applied over the Kabul River Basin to simulate the temperature and precipitation of monsoon season 2010, i.e., 1st May to 16th September 2010. We considered the May month as a spin-up period. The initial and boundary conditions were derived from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Forecast System Reanalysis data. The model was set up by using two-nested domains with increasing horizontal resolution moving inward from 15km on domain d01 to 5km on domain d02. The simulations were compared with TRMM 3B42, and station data collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department and Water and the Power Development Authority using bias, percentage bias, root mean square error, and Pearson correlation. The results revealed that the simulated precipitation was improved from d01 to d02. However, the model showed mixed results with overestimation of precipitation at some stations and underestimations at others. Simulated precipitation generally agreed better with TRMM than with station data. Overall, the results indicate that the WRF model can be used to simulate heavy precipitation in complex terrain.