A site amplification model for Switzerland based on site-condition indicators and incorporating local response as measured at seismic stations

Abstract

AbstractThe spatial estimation of the soil response is one of the key ingredients for the modelling of earthquake risk. We present a ground motion amplification model for Switzerland, developed as part of a national-scale earthquake risk model. The amplification model is based on local estimates of soil response derived for about 240 instrumented sites in Switzerland using regional seismicity data by means of empirical spectral modelling techniques. These local measures are then correlated to continuous layers of topographic and geological soil condition indicators (multi-scale topographic slopes, a lithological classification of the soil, a national geological model of bedrock depth) and finally mapped at the national scale resorting to regression kriging as geostatistical interpolation technique. The obtained model includes amplification maps for PGV (peak ground velocity), PSA (pseudo-spectral acceleration) at periods of 1.0, 0.6 and 0.3 s; the modelled amplification represents the linear soil response, relative to a reference rock profile with VS30 (time-averaged shear-wave velocity in the uppermost 30 m of soil column) = 1105 m/s. Each of these amplification maps is accompanied by two layers quantifying its site-to-site and single-site, within event variabilities, respectively (epistemic and aleatory uncertainties). The PGV, PSA(1.0 s) and PSA(0.3 s) maps are additionally translated to macroseismic intensity aggravation layers. The national-scale amplification model is validated by comparing it with empirical measurements of soil response at stations not included in the calibration dataset, with existing city-scale amplification models and with macroseismic intensity observations from historical earthquakes. The model is also included in the Swiss ShakeMap workflow.