Values and inductive risk in machine learning modelling: the case of binary classification models

Abstract

AbstractI examine the construction and evaluation of machine learning (ML) binary classification models. These models are increasingly used for societal applications such as classifying patients into two categories according to the presence or absence of a certain disease like cancer and heart disease. I argue that the construction of ML (binary) classification models involves an optimisation process aiming at the minimization of the inductive risk associated with the intended uses of these models. I also argue that the construction of these models is underdetermined by the available data, and that this makes it necessary for ML modellers to make social value judgments in determining the error costs (associated with misclassifications) used in ML optimization. I thus suggest that the assessment of the inductive risk with respect to the social values of the intended users is an integral part of the construction and evaluation of ML classification models. I also discuss the implications of this conclusion for the philosophical debate concerning inductive risk.