Static vs dynamic connectivity: how landscape changes affect connectivity predictions in the Iberian Peninsula

Abstract

Abstract Context Climate and land-use changes affect species ranges and movements. However, these changes are usually overlooked in connectivity studies, and this could have adverse consequences in the definition of effective management measures. Objectives We evaluated two ways to incorporate landscape dynamics: (i) by analyzing connectivity as a fluctuating phenomenon (i.e., time-varying connectivity); and (ii) by analyzing species movements from past to current ranges (i.e., spatio-temporal connectivity). We also compared these dynamic approaches with traditional static connectivity methods. Methods We compared the overall connectivity values and the prioritization of critical habitat patches according to dynamic and static approaches using habitat availability metrics (Probability of Connectivity and Equivalent Connected Area). This comparative research was conducted for species associated with broadleaf forests of the different ecoregions of the Iberian Peninsula. We considered species habitat preferences during movement and a wide range of dispersal abilities to assess functional connectivity. Results Static approaches generated varying overall connectivity values and priority patches depending on the time snapshot considered and different from those generated by dynamic approaches. The two dynamic connectivity approaches resulted in very similar priority conservation patches, indicating their potential to guide enduring conservation measures that enhance connectivity between contemporary habitat patches at multiple time snapshots but also species range shifts in time. Conclusions Connectivity is affected by landscape changes, and only dynamic approaches can overcome the issues associated with these changes and provide valuable information to guide improved and enduring measures in changing landscapes.