Dynamic connectivity analyses to inform management of the invasive American mink and its native competitor, the European mink

Abstract

AbstractForecasting habitat suitability and connectivity can be central to both controlling range expansion of invasive species and promoting native species conservation, especially under changing climate conditions. This study aimed to identify and prioritize areas in Spain to control the expansion of one of the most harmful invasive species in Europe, the American mink, while conserving its counterpart, the endangered European mink, under current and future conditions. We used ensemble habitat suitability and dynamic connectivity models to predict species ranges and movement routes considering likely climate change under three emission scenarios. Then, using habitat availability metrics, we prioritized areas for invasive mink control and native mink conservation and classified them into different management zones that reflected the overlap between species and threat from American to European minks. Results suggest that both species are likely to experience declines in habitat and connectivity under climate change scenarios with significantly larger declines by the end of the century for European minks (72 and 80% respectively) than for American minks (41 and 32%). Priority areas for management of both species varied over time and across emission scenarios, with a general shift in priority habitat towards the North-East of the study area. Our findings demonstrate how habitat suitability and dynamic connectivity approaches can guide long-term management strategies to control invasive species and conserve native species while accounting for likely landscape changes. The simultaneous study of both invasive and native species can support prioritized management action and inform management planning of the intensity, extent, and techniques of intervention depending on the overlap between species.