Movement models and simulation reveal highway impacts and mitigation opportunities for a metapopulation-distributed species

Abstract

Abstract Context When human-made barriers impact wildlife by limiting habitat connectivity, simulation can reveal movements lost to fragmentation, strategies to restore corridor function, and potential benefits of corridor restoration. Objectives Guided by previous genetic research, we examined desert bighorn sheep movement near two highways that restrict gene flow and modelled their movement and habitat selection behavior. The ultimate goal was to simulate movement without highway barriers as a means to site crossing structures that mitigate fragmentation and to reveal their benefits for habitat reachability. Methods We fit integrated step selection functions (iSSFs) to GPS data from 9 bighorn populations near highways in California. After comparing iSSF simulations to validation data, we simulated 8200 bighorn-years of movement—200 year-long tracks each for 41 individuals—on a landscape with and without highways. We derived utilization distributions (UD) from simulations to identify probable high-use locations along the highways, compare these locations to previously predicted genetic corridors and roadkill events, and estimate changes in habitat reachability and elevation without these barriers. Results Simulation UDs correlated well with observed bighorn movements. Barrier-free simulations indicated preferred corridors across highway-blocked valleys, often at the same locations predicted by landscape genetics models (4 of 6 genetic-based corridors matched simulation-based corridors), and where bighorn roadkill events occurred (3 of 3 roadkill events occurred at simulation-predicted corridors). Relative to barrier-present simulations, barrier removal increased accessible habitat for 8 of 9 populations, with increases ranging from 7 to 138% per population. Barrier-free conditions allowed movement to higher elevations in two populations. Conclusion Animal movement simulation can effectively assess fragmentation impacts and reveal mitigation options when other data sources are scarce. Our simulations confirm previously predicted corridors, provide detailed locations for targeted mitigation, and suggest certain corridors pose greater habitat-related benefits.