The Russia–Ukraine war disproportionately threatens the nutrition security of developing countries

Abstract

AbstractWhile the ongoing Russia–Ukraine war threatens global nutrition security, the magnitude and extent of its impact remain underexamined. Here we show that, with the lowest level of war duration, severity, sanction, and countries involved, the direct and indirect impacts of the war and sanctions could newly place 67.3 million people (roughly equals the total population of France) in undernourishment and 316.7 million people (roughly equals the total population of Bangladesh and Russia) suffering from extreme national food insecurity. Approximately 95% of the affected population are from developing countries, highlighting the vulnerability of food supply in these countries. Both the undernourished population and its inequality across countries will substantially grow, if war duration and severity increase. If the war is prolonged to early 2024, future agricultural growth cannot fully offset the negative impacts, and global hunger will still very likely exacerbate. We conclude that targeted measures should be placed in developing countries and their vulnerable populations to reconstruct a just, healthy, and environmentally sustainable food system.