Estimating the GHGs and the MAC of Agricultural Production Systems in China

Abstract

As the second largest source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the agricultural system has an arduous task of reducing emissions. There is an urgent need to think about how to achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions in agricultural production at the lowest cost. This paper applied the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) factor method to calculate the GHG emissions of China’s agricultural production systems and deconstruct it into the crop farming and animal husbandry sectors. Input–output indicators based on parametric directional distance functions were constructed to assess the green production efficiency (GPE) of different agricultural sectors and scientifically quantify the marginal abatement costs (MACs) of different GHGs. The results showed the following: (a) During 2000 to 2020, GHG emissions from China’s agricultural production systems averaged 87.73 million tons of CO 2 -eq and showed a fluctuating downward trend. CH 4 emissions accounted for the largest average proportion of 55%, mainly animal enteric fermentation and rice methane emissions. (b) The average level of agricultural GPE in China is 0.79, and 0.76 for crop farming is slightly higher than 0.67 for animal husbandry. (c) The average MAC is 1,861.71 yuan/ton CO 2 -eq, and it is increasing year by year. The shadow price is positively correlated with the efficiency level. The “high-efficiency–low-cost” areas are key areas for agricultural emission reduction, such as Henan and Shandong provinces. Formulate emission reduction strategies according to the characteristics of regional GHG emissions to promote the realization of the “dual carbon” goal of agriculture.