Full adoption of the most effective strategies to mitigate methane emissions by ruminants can help meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050

Author:

Arndt Claudia1ORCID,Hristov Alexander N.2ORCID,Price William J.3,McClelland Shelby C.4ORCID,Pelaez Amalia M.25ORCID,Cueva Sergio F.2,Oh Joonpyo2ORCID,Dijkstra Jan5ORCID,Bannink André5,Bayat Ali R.6ORCID,Crompton Les A.7ORCID,Eugène Maguy A.8ORCID,Enahoro Dolapo1ORCID,Kebreab Ermias9ORCID,Kreuzer Michael10ORCID,McGee Mark11,Martin Cécile8ORCID,Newbold Charles J.12,Reynolds Christopher K.7ORCID,Schwarm Angela13ORCID,Shingfield Kevin J.6,Veneman Jolien B.14,Yáñez-Ruiz David R.15,Yu Zhongtang16ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Integrated Sciences Division, International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI), 00100 Nairobi, Kenya

2. Department of Animal Science, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802

3. College of Agricultural and Life Sciences, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844

4. Department of Soil and Crop Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523

5. Animal Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research, 6708 PB Wageningen, The Netherlands

6. Natural Resources Institute Finland, 00790 Helsinki, Finland

7. School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading, Reading RG6 6EU, United Kingdom

8. Institut national de recherche pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (INRAE), VetAgro Sup, UMR Herbivores, Université Clermont Auvergne, 63122 Saint-Genès-Champanelle, France

9. College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences, University of California, Davis, CA 95616

10. Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland

11. Animal & Grassland Research and Innovation Centre (AGRIC), Teagasc, Grange C15 PW93, Ireland

12. Scotland’s Rural College, Edinburgh EH9 3JG, United Kingdom

13. Department of Animal and Aquacultural Sciences, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, 1432 Aas, Norway

14. De Heus Animal Nutrition, 6717 VE Ede, The Netherlands

15. Estación Experimental del Zaidín (EEZ), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), 18008 Granada, Spain

16. Department of Animal Sciences, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210

Abstract

Significance Agricultural methane emissions must be decreased by 11 to 30% of the 2010 level by 2030 and by 24 to 47% by 2050 to meet the 1.5 °C target. We identified three strategies to decrease product-based methane emissions while increasing animal productivity and five strategies to decrease absolute methane emissions without reducing animal productivity. Globally, 100% adoption of the most effective product-based and absolute methane emission mitigation strategy can meet the 1.5 °C target by 2030 but not 2050, because mitigation effects are offset by projected increases in methane. On a regional level, Europe but not Africa may be able to meet their contribution to the 1.5 °C target, highlighting the different challenges faced by high- and middle- and low-income countries.

Funder

Fondo Nacional de Desarrollo Científico y Tecnológico

USDA | National Institute of Food and Agriculture

Bundesministerium für Wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung

Publisher

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences

Subject

Multidisciplinary

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