Real-World COVID-19 Vaccine Protection Rates against Infection in the Delta and Omicron Eras

Abstract

The real-world vaccine protection rates (VPRs) against the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS‑CoV‑2) infection are critical in formulating future vaccination strategies against the virus. Based on a varying coefficient stochastic epidemic model, we obtain 7 countries’ real-world VPRs using daily epidemiological and vaccination data, and find that the VPRs improved with more vaccine doses. The average VPR of the full vaccination was 82% (SE: 4%) and 61% (SE: 3%) in the pre-Delta and Delta-dominated periods, respectively. The Omicron variant reduced the average VPR of the full vaccination to 39% (SE: 2%). However, the booster dose restored the VPR to 63% (SE: 1%) which was significantly above the 50% threshold in the Omicron-dominated period. Scenario analyses show that the existing vaccination strategies have significantly delayed and reduced the timing and the magnitude of the infection peaks, respectively, and doubling the existing booster coverage would lead to 29% fewer confirmed cases and 17% fewer deaths in the 7 countries compared to the outcomes at the existing booster taking rates. These call for higher full vaccine and booster coverage for all countries.