Temporal variation of spatial autocorrelation of COVID-19 cases identified in Poland during the year from the beginning of the pandemic

Abstract

The spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has a simultaneous temporal and spatial component. This pattern results from a complex combination of factors, including social ones, that lead to significant differences in the evolution of space-time distributions, both between and within countries. The aim of this study was to assess changes in the regularity of the spatial distribution of the number of diagnosed COVID-19 cases in Poland over more than a year of the pandemic. The analysis utilized daily and weekly data for 380 counties (poviats), using the local – Poisson risk semivariogram – measure of spatial autocorrelation. Despite the heterogeneity and errors in the source data, it was possible to identify clear patterns of temporal changes in the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases, manifested by differences in the nature and extent of their autocorrelation.