A Stochastic Model for Piping Failure Frequency Analysis Using OPDE Data

Author:

Yuan X.-X.1,Pandey M. D.2,Riznic J.3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Civil Engineering, Ryerson University, 350 Victoria Street, Toronto, ON, M5B 2K3, Canada

2. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Waterloo, 200 University Avenue, West Waterloo, ON, N2L 3G1, Canada

3. Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission, P. O. Box 1046, Station B, Ottawa, ON, K1P 5S9, Canada

Abstract

The accurate estimation of piping failure frequency is an important task to support the probabilistic risk assessment and risk-informed in-service inspection of nuclear power plants. Although probabilistic models have been reported in the literature to analyze the piping failure frequency, this paper proposes a stochastic point process model that incorporates both a time dependent trend and plant-specific (or cohort) effects on the failure rate. A likelihood based statistical method is proposed for estimating the model parameters. A case study is presented to analyze the Class 1 pipe failure data given in the OPDE Database.

Publisher

ASME International

Subject

Mechanical Engineering,Energy Engineering and Power Technology,Aerospace Engineering,Fuel Technology,Nuclear Energy and Engineering

Reference21 articles.

1. Database Development and Uncertainty Treatment for Estimating Pipe Failure Rates and Rupture Frequencies;Fleming;Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf.

2. Nyman, R., Hegedus, D., Tomic, B., and Lydell, B., 1997, “Reliability of Piping System Components: Framework for Estimating Failure Parameters From Service Data,” SKI Report No. 97:26.

3. Gosselin, S. R., Simonen, F. A., Pilli, S. P., and Lydell, B., 2007, “Probabilities of Failure and Uncertainty Estimate Information For Passive Components—A Literature Review,” U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC, NUREG/CR-6936.

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