Integrating QRA and SRA Methods Within a Bayesian Framework When Calculating Risk in Marine Operations: Two Examples

Abstract

This paper concerns itself with the integration of QRA (quantitative risk analysis) and SRA (structural reliability analysis) methods. For simplicity, we will use the term SRA instead of SRA methods in the paper. The Bayesian (subjective) approach seems to be the most appropriate framework for such integrated analyses. It may, however, not be clear to all what the Bayesian approach really means. There exists alternative Bayesian approaches, and the integration of SRA and QRA is very much dependent on what the basis is. The purpose of this paper is to present two marine operation examples, implementing two different Bayesian approaches: the “classical Bayesian approach” and the “fully Bayesian approach.” Following the classical Bayesian approach, we estimate a true, objective risk, whereas in the fully Bayesian approach, risk is a way of expressing uncertainty about future observable quantities. In both examples, one initial accidental event is investigated by using a fault tree and by integrating SRA into this fault tree. We conclude that the most suitable framework for integrating SRA and QRA is to adopt the “fully Bayesian approach.” [S0892-7219(00)00703-2]