Reliability Analysis of Oil Tankers With Collision Damage

Abstract

This paper deals with reliability analysis of a damaged tanker conditioned upon collision damage and the damage scenarios following collision. A tanker in full load condition (FLC) and two damage sizes are considered. The ultimate strength of the damaged tanker is assessed by applying Smith’s method, and an interaction equation for vertical and horizontal bending moments (VBM and HBM) is established. The still-water bending moment is calculated by the hydrostatic code ShipShape and the 3D hydrodynamic code WASIM is employed to calculate the wave induced vertical and horizontal bending moments. Correlation between vertical and horizontal bending moments is also considered. An out-crossing rate method is adopted to estimate the failure probability for the vector load effect process, and Monte Carlo simulations are used to account for model uncertainties.