Growth projections against set-target of renewable energy and resultant impact on emissions reduction in India

Abstract

In accordance with the Paris Climate Agreement (COP21) and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), India is greatly focused on deployment of renewable energy (RE) for supplementing the energy requirements of the country. The present article assesses the validity of the promises offered by RE technologies in India and its necessary action to understand the gap between setting goals and the ground situation, which can also show a pathway to other developing countries. Therefore, the long-term projection perspectives on RE growth have been made using the India Energy Security Scenario-2047. In order to achieve the set target for emissions reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs) i.e., 1209 MT CO2e in support of SDGs to the 2005 level by 2030, three renewable growth scenarios have been tested for transitioning the Indian energy system. Accordingly, the regression analysis reveals that the most desirable growth scenario will require a steady rise of RE contribution in the overall energy mix of India by 2030 from the current ~21% to 68% of the installed capacity. In this view, the present study highlights the exploration of new alternatives in long-term energy planning, and less on one-sided scenario to achieve the emissions’ reduction target.