Exploring the Future of Universities Through Experimental Foresight

Abstract

Throughout 2018/2019, The Futures Lab, Inc. (TFL) was commissioned to undertake a comprehensive foresight study on the potential futures for universities in Norway. For the most part, the project followed the full, TFL comprehensive six-stage foresight process and a number of customized approaches that leveraged the specificities of the Norwegian Education System. The foresight project covered two future time horizons, namely 2025 to 2030 and 2031 to 2040. Rather than focus here on the Future of the University project itself, this paper considers five experimental foresight methods that produced an extra edge to the creative inputs to this project and delivered some unexpected and critical insights that became decisive platforms and framing cues for the ultimate seven futures scenarios that were delivered, and for which strategies and action plans were created. The term experimental foresight is interpreted as freeform thinking, testing the boundaries, incorporating unorthodox, disparate approaches, tools, artifacts and environment, and real-time improvization, it is about testing new techniques and repurposing and updating older ones. Experimental foresight is closely allied with and some would claim often indistinguishable from experiential futures, which has become prominent within foresight. We distinguish the two insomuch that experiential refers to the way the foresight is conducted, whereas experimental is what is conducted. The paper describes the five experimental foresight methods and techniques based upon theory, practice and proprietary development processes, reflecting various approaches to creative thinking. The paper outlines the design and architecture of each method as well as how it was applied to the Future of the University project, the outcomes, values and benefits. Where appropriate examples of the outcomes have been used to explain or underpin the purpose and benefits of the method under discussion. The methods selected are always harmonized with the more linear, mathematical and modeling applied in the practice of foresight.