The current state of scenario development: an overview of techniques

Author:

Bishop Peter,Hines Andy,Collins Terry

Abstract

PurposeThe paper aims to review all the techniques for developing scenarios that have appeared in the literature, along with comments on their utility, strengths and weaknesses.Design/methodology/approachThe study was carried out through an electronic search using internet search engines and online databases and indexes.FindingsThe paper finds eight categories of techniques that include a total of 23 variations used to develop scenarios. There are descriptions and evaluations for each.Practical implicationsFuturists can use this list to broaden their repertoire of scenario techniques.Originality/valueScenario development is the stock‐in‐trade of futures studies, but no catalog of the techniques used has yet been published. This list is the start at developing a consensus list of techniques that can be refined as the field matures.

Publisher

Emerald

Subject

Business and International Management,Management of Technology and Innovation

Reference87 articles.

1. Bell, W. (2003), Foundations of Futures Studies: Human Science for a New Era: History, Purposes, Knowledge, Transaction Publishers, New Brunswick, NJ.

2. Börjeson, L., Höjer, M., Dreborg, K., Ekvall, T. and Finnveden, G. ((in press), “Scenario types and techniques: towards a user's guide”, Futures.

3. Bradfield, R., Wright, G., Burt, G., Cairns, G. and Van Der Heijden, K. (2005), “The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning”, Futures, Vol. 37, pp. 795‐812.

4. Buckley, J. and Dudley, T. (1999), “How Gerber used a decision tree in strategic decision‐making”, The Graziadio Business Report, available at: http://gbr.peperdine.edu/993/tree.html.

5. Burchsted, S. and Crews, C. (2003), “Systemic scenarios: creating synergy through scenarios and systems thinking”, unpublished Master's thesis, University of Houston‐Clear Lake, Clear Lake, TX.

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