Risk Assessment Overrides: Shuffling the Risk Deck Without Any Improvements in Prediction

Abstract

In the federal supervision system, officers have discretion to depart from the risk designations provided by the Post Conviction Risk Assessment (PCRA) instrument. This component of the risk classification process is referred to as the supervision override. While the rationale for allowing overrides is that actuarial scores cannot always capture an individual’s unique characteristics, there is relatively limited literature on the actual effects of overrides on an actuarial tool’s predictive efficacies. This study examines overrides in the federal system by assessing the extent to which risk levels are adjusted through overrides as well as the impact of overrides on the PCRA’s risk prediction effectiveness. Findings show that nearly all overrides lead to an upward risk reclassification, that overrides tend to place substantial numbers of persons under federal supervision (especially those convicted of sex offenses) into the highest supervision categories, and that overrides result in a deterioration of the PCRA’s risk prediction capacities.