Examining Trajectories of Change on the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-Entry (DRAOR)

Abstract

Dynamic risk scales have largely been evaluated using singular assessment scores, including those obtained at the start of supervision. While this approach includes assessment of dynamic factors, it ignores changes with reassessment, failing to examine whether an instrument is truly dynamic in nature. This is problematic, as proximal risk assessments have consistently outperformed baseline assessments in the prediction of recidivism. In the current study, we examined the dynamic properties of the Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Reentry (DRAOR) in 4,736 adults on community supervision in Iowa, United States ( N = 33,965 assessments). As expected, while clients demonstrated statistically significant changes on the DRAOR domains over time, changes were small in magnitude. We also examined the predictive validity of baseline and proximal DRAOR total and domain scores on criminal recidivism and revocation in a larger sample of 11,421 adults in the same jurisdiction. While DRAOR baseline scores did predict both outcomes, prediction did not improve with proximal scores. This conflicted with expected findings from previous research on the DRAOR in New Zealand. The results of both of these research questions indicate there was an overall lack of change reflected in this sample. Potential issues regarding implementation fidelity are discussed. Additional research is needed to examine the dynamic properties of the DRAOR in Iowa given the importance of reassessment data in community corrections.