Trade within South Asia: Unrealistic Expectations

Abstract

This article analyses the causes of low intra-regional trade connections within South Asia, which have remained disappointing despite the long-awaited launch of the South Asian Free Trade Area (SAFTA) on 6 January 2004 in Islamabad. Analysis of World Bank data and other relevant sources for the period 1995–2018 shows that trade among SAFTA members has not increased as significantly as had been hoped. The statistical analysis undertaken confirms what was suspected by many observers, as it shows that the SAFTA countries are not actually natural trading partners. Rather they are often competitors, seeking to export the same product groups. Since this makes the prospects of future substantial increase in mutual trade unlikely, the article concludes with some reflections about how to strengthen regional trade support mechanisms.