Trade competitiveness of Pakistan: evidence from the revealed comparative advantage approach

Abstract

Purpose Pakistan’s natural endowment of labour and land is suitable for labour-intensive agriculture and manufacturing sector. This study aims to investigate international trade competitiveness of Pakistan in 14 major industries of agriculture and manufacturing sector, accounting more than 85 per cent of total export receipts. Design/methodology/approach The competitiveness of Pakistan in selected industries of agriculture and manufacturing sectors from 2003 to 2014 is investigated using the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) index, introduced by Balassa (1965) on HS data collected from the United Nations Commodity Trade database. The obtained indices in this study are then subjected to panel regression analysis to investigate the effect of domestic productivity growth and real exchange rate on international trade competitiveness of major industries. Findings The results show that the agriculture sector of Pakistan has higher comparative advantage in raw cotton, cereals, raw leather and fruits. The raw cotton shows the highest competitiveness of 54.46 which is followed by cereals (17.13), leather (9.83) and fruits (1.97). The RCA of the manufacturing sector shows that textile (54.85), carpets (10.72), sports goods (2.18) and beverages (1.47) have higher competitiveness. The RCA, in relatively capital-intensive industries, shows a high disadvantage. The trend analysis shows distorted competitiveness in labour-intensive, textile, carpet and footwear industries. The results of panel regression analysis show that the domestic productivity growth and real exchange rate depreciation have a significant positive impact on the international competitiveness of selected industries. The study urges Pakistan to make its macroeconomic environment investment-friendly and encourage investment in deteriorating labour-intensive industries. Practical implications Globalisation has significantly increased international competition, and Pakistan is losing its competitiveness in labour-intensive industries owing to lack of domestic value addition and development efforts. The major problem with the productivity of these industries is the lack of proper infrastructure, acute energy crisis, lack of domestic and foreign investment and overvaluation of real exchange rate. The domestic investors are shifting their capital either to other domestic sectors and/or other investment-friendly countries. Policymakers in Pakistan should address the problems of these important labour-intensive industries. The government needs to understand macroeconomic uncertainties and make investment-friendly policies to encourage domestic and foreign investment. The future studies should perform in-depth research to identify both microeconomic and macroeconomic variables responsible for deterioration in competitiveness of major labour-intensive industries in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors of Pakistan. Originality/value This study is a comprehensive examination into the nature and pattern of international competitiveness of Pakistan in 14 important industries of the agriculture and manufacturing sector which has seldom been investigated empirically. The obtained indices in this study are also subjected to panel regression analysis to explore the effect of domestic productivity growth and real exchange rate depreciation on the international competitiveness of Pakistan.