False Alerts in Air Traffic Control Conflict Alerting System: Is There a “Cry Wolf” Effect?

Abstract

Objective: The aim is to establish the extent to which the high false-alarm rate of air traffic control midair conflict alerts is responsible for a “cry wolf” effect—where true alerts are not responded to and all alerts are delayed in their response. Background: Some aircraft collisions have been partly attributed to the cry wolf effect, and in other domains (health care and systems monitoring), there is a causal connection between false-alarm rate and cry wolf behavior. We hypothesized that a corresponding relationship exists in air traffic control (ATC). Method: Aircraft track and alert system behavior data surrounding 495 conflict alerts were analyzed to identify true and false alerts, trajectory type, and controller behavior. Forty-five percent of the alerts were false, ranging from 0.28 to 0.58. Results: Although centers with more false alerts contributed to more nonresponses, there was no evidence that these were nonresponses to true alerts or that response times were delayed in those centers. Instead, controllers showed desirable anticipatory behavior by issuing trajectory changes prior to the alert. Those trajectory pairs whose conflicts were more difficult to visualize induced more reliance on, and less compliance with, the alerting system. Conclusion: The high false-alarm rate does not appear to induce cry wolf behavior in the context of en route ATC conflict alerts. Application: There is no need to substantially modify conflict alert algorithms, but the conflict alert system may be modified to address difficult-to-visualize conflicts.