Statistical extrapolation methods for estimating extreme loads on wind turbine blades under turbulent wind conditions and stochastic material properties

Abstract

According to the IEC Standard 61400-1, designers of wind turbines are required to apply statistical extrapolation techniques to estimate the extreme (ultimate) load. In the present article, the certification procedure is assessed under the uncertainty of the material properties using a simulated load time series of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory 5MW reference wind turbine rotor. The uncertainty of the material properties is introduced in the elastic properties of the composite materials based on the OptiDAT composite material database. The assessment relies on the comparison of the estimated blade extreme loads and deflections, obtained for the reference and the stochastically varied material properties. It is found that the variability of the material properties does not affect the estimated ultimate moments (differences < 1.5%) but affects the maximum flapwise deflection (differences ~8%). It is concluded that the peak over threshold peak extraction technique and the three-parameter Weibull fitting functions outperform among those considered in the article.