Consolidation In Pakistan's Retail Sector*

Abstract

This paper reviews changes which occurred over the last decade in the retail sector in urban Pakistan, in terms of a decrease in traditional ‘kiryana’ stores, an increase in general stores, and the emergence of new formats such as superstores, malls, and retail chains. These trends are discussed in the context of broader socio–economic changes, including growth in the urban middle class and disposable incomes. The paper discusses similar trends that occurred in the late nineteenth century in North America and Europe, the recent rise in international retailing, and the possibility of global retailers such as Germany's Metro and the French Carrefour, entering the Pakistani market. The entry of such firms has often resulted in profoundly altering the retail landscape, as has been the experience in the less developed markets of East Europe, Latin America, and the Asia Pacific region. It is estimated that in 2002, about 6.8 million of the 50 million people living in urban Pakistan belonged to the upper and upper–middle class, and represented a grocery market worth $1.7 billion. This segment, projected to grow to 17 million people by the year 2010, is expected to be the first to switch to modern retail stores. This paper projects the impact global retailers might have on Pakistan's retail landscape.