Are They Still Aiming High? The Development of Educational Aspirations of Lower Secondary School Students With Immigrant Backgrounds in Germany

Abstract

Although research indicates that students with immigrant backgrounds often have higher educational aspirations than students without immigrant backgrounds at the same performance level, little is known about the longitudinal development of this difference in aspirations. This article analyzes how idealistic and realistic educational aspirations from Grade 5 until Grade 9 in Germany develop for students from various migrant groups, compared with those without immigrant backgrounds at the same school track and at the same level of school performance. Drawing on different theoretical assumptions, we examine to what extent students (increasingly) adapt their aspirations to their school performance toward the end of compulsory schooling. Our empirical analysis uses data from the first five waves (Grades 5–9; 2010/11–2014/15) of the National Educational Panel Study in Germany ( N = 5,542). Random-effects model results show a positive association between students’ school performance and their idealistic and realistic aspirations, and this association tends to increase over time. However, there is no uniform pattern in students’ aspiration trajectories. Some migrant groups (Poland, Southern Europe, former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics) have similar aspiration trajectories as students without immigrant backgrounds at the same performance level, while other groups (Turkey, Northern and Western Europe, and others) maintain higher idealistic aspirations. Controlling for school performance, only students of Turkish origin also maintain higher realistic aspirations until Grade 9. These findings allow us to better understand the conditions behind the educational disadvantages of some migrant groups and offer insights into how best to further mitigate inequalities in educational outcomes.