The economic growth impact of tourism in Small Island Developing States—evidence from the Caribbean

Abstract

Tourism’s contribution to economic output in the Caribbean exceeds that in other regions of the world. We use panel data over the period of three decades, focusing exclusively on Caribbean islands, to study the causal link between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive and statistically significant effect on real Gross Domestic Product growth. A 10% increase in tourism spending is found to increase economic growth from 0.3% to 1%, a finding that is consistent with similar studies. A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that the overall tourism multiplier is around 0.25 which is smaller than estimates from previous studies. These results have important implications for researchers, industry practitioners, and policymakers.